Gulf Stream Variability and Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions

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doi: 10.1175/1520-0485(2002)031<3516:GSVAOA>2.0.CO;2 Journal of Physical Oceanography: Vol. 31, No. 12, pp. 3516–3529. Gulf Stream Variability and Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions* Claude Frankignoul and Gaelle de Coëtlogon Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS–IRD–UPMC, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Terrence M. Joyce Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts Shenfu Dong Applied Physics Laboratory, School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received September 15, 2000, in final form May 18, 2001)     ABSTRACT     Time series of Gulf Stream position derived from the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter from October 1992 to November 1998 are used to investigate the lead and lag relation between the Gulf Stream path as it leaves the continental shelf and the changes in sea level pressure, surface wind stress, and sea surface temperature (SST), as given by the NCEP reanalysis. The dominant signal is a northward (southward) displacement of Gulf Stream axis 11 to 18 months after the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reaches positive (negative) extrema. A SST warming (cooling) peaking north of the Gulf Stream is also seen to precede the latitudinal shifts, but it is a part of the large-scale SST anomaly tripole that is generated by the NAO fluctuations. There is no evidence that the Gulf Stream shifts have a direct impact onto the large-scale atmospheric circulation. A fast, passive response of the Gulf Stream to NAO forcing is also suggested by a corresponding analysis of the yearly mean Gulf Stream position estimated from XBT data at 200 m during 1954–98, where the NAO primarily leads the latitudinal Gulf Stream shifts by 1 yr. The fast Gulf Stream response seems to reflect buoyancy forcing in the recirculation gyres but, as the covariability remains significant when the NAO leads by up to 9 yr, large-scale wind stress forcing may become important after a longer delay. Because of the high NAO index of the last decades, the TOPEX/Poseidon period is one of unprecedented northward excursion of the Gulf Stream in the 45-yr record, with the Gulf Stream 50–100 km north of its climatological mean position.