Global warming and thermohaline circulation stabilit

PDF: http://data.dhkim.info/monograph/Etc/XRKNTR8GBNAJMFQE.pdf

Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
ISSN: 1364-503X (Paper) 1471-2962 (Online)
Issue: Volume 361, Number 1810 / September 15, 2003
Pages: 1961 - 1975
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2003.1245
URL: Linking Options
Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability

Richard A. Wood A1, Michael Vellinga , Robert Thorpe

A1 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, London Road, Bracknell RG42 3TQ, UK (richard.wood@metoffice.com)

Abstract:

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe.

Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions.

(i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much?

(ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely?

Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future.

Keywords:

climate change, global warming, ocean circulation, thermohaline circulation, gulf stream