Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100

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Article          

       
Climate Dynamics
Publisher: Springer-Verlag Heidelberg
ISSN: 0930-7575 (Paper) 1432-0894 (Online)
DOI: 10.1007/s003820100180
Issue: Volume 18, Numbers 3-4
Date:  December 2001
Pages: 225 - 240
Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100

J. M. Gregory A1, J. A. Church A2, G. J. Boer A3, K. W. Dixon A4, G. M. Flato A3, D. R. Jackett A2, J. A. Lowe A1, S. P. O'Farrell A5, E. Roeckner A6, G. L. Russell A7, R. J. Stouffer A4, M. Winton A4

A1 Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK E-mail: jmgregory@meto.gov.uk
A2 Antarctic CRC and CSIRO Marine Research, Castray Esplanade, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
A3 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, PO Box 1700, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada
A4 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, PO Box 308, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA
A5 CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia
A6 Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundestrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
A7 NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA

Abstract:

Abstract Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990-2090 it amounts to 0.20-0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.